Copper Summary: Shanghai copper fell sharply, expected weak recent shocks
Core Tip: capital side profit is an important reason for the callback, not only copper varieties, other non-ferrous metals are significantly retracement.
But need to point out that the call after a continuous rise is the technical needs of the short term still need to shock consolidation. In the long run, fundamentals change little, macro data favorable, copper prices are still upside space. Material under the Zhou Lun copper 6700-6950, Shanghai copper 5.1-5.3 million, scrap copper 452-46 million.
First, electrolytic copper market
Table 1: East China electrolytic copper price (unit: yuan)
Shanghai copper staged this week finished lower prices, the week within the Shanghai copper fluctuations range of nearly 2,000 yuan. However, due to most of the decline in Shanghai copper appeared on Friday afternoon, so the actual spot copper price volatility is not small, less than a thousand dollars.
Figure 1: Shanghai and London ratio and import profit and loss
Copper this week, experienced a black Friday, Friday afternoon, Shanghai copper fell rapidly expanded to more than a thousand dollars, but a few days ago, copper prices were relatively stable. So in fact, this week to Thursday, the overall market sentiment is still strong, businesses are bullish or bearish outlook, few bearish. So the first four days of the week, holding goods to sell goods reluctant to sell a strong desire to make the spot copper premiums continue to rise, the highest copper had reported up to 80 or so. However, the downstream performance in the goods are more cautious, and more to maintain on-demand operation, in addition to Wednesday, the actual performance of the lower reaches of poor performance. Friday, despite the sharp decline in copper prices, but did not cause the downstream to buy Hing, due to market panic, worried about the copper price showed unilateral downward pattern, so still maintain the wait-and-see situation. On the market outlook, the current market bearish mood is too strong, it is expected next week, the market supply will increase, but the demand is difficult to see significantly improved.
Second, renewable copper market
Copper rally this week, blocked, scrap copper prices have not been able to reverse the market trend, the mainstream of the week the market bright copper prices in more than 46,500 yuan / ton, a few areas have 47,000 yuan / ton high prices appear. Copper market this week, the overall bullish sentiment is still too thick, so in fact the market supply is not much. But the manufacturers because of the limited number of orders, so the actual purchase intention is not strong, so most businesses do not want high-priced goods, the basic bargain-based goods. But on Thursday, Friday, copper prices fell after two consecutive days, scrap copper market business bullish intention will be loose, panic, some businesses have Paohuo phenomenon. However, the rapid diving of copper on Friday and failed to give the owner of the full response time, the holder is difficult to accept low prices, but unfortunately to wait and see. On the current point of view, the overall market sentiment was cool, so next week, copper market supply is expected to continue to increase.
Third, the downstream market analysis
1, real estate cooling copper prices will lose a strong factor in support
Although the recent real estate market has been significantly cooling, but because the 2016 housing prices optimistic, the current inventory is still very high enthusiasm. But with the control to the land market, before some enterprises get high prices are likely to face market problems. At present, around the property market regulation and control policy has been tightened, for the land price regulation after another, limit, increase holdings and other policies are very much, inhibit the land market premium rate. But at this stage, with the current round of regulation gradually shifted from the demand side to the supply side, there have been a number of hot cities have issued the "13th Five-Year Plan" during the housing development plan, clear the next three years to five years will greatly increase the land supply The "13th Five-Year" period is to establish a real estate market long-term mechanism of the critical period, which is the top priority of land supply, to a large extent determine the future of the property market. With the future hot urban land supply increased significantly, on the one hand will ease the current hot city supply and demand situation, on the other hand can gradually reverse the housing prices continue to bullish market expectations, help the property market cooling. In addition, although nine or ten months is the traditional real estate sales season, but if the gold nine silver ten sales data is poor, real estate control policy may still change to loose. In addition to the policy impact factors, the 2016 high base effect will increase the pressure in 2017, is expected in the second half of the real estate market will continue to cool, and will be transmitted to the copper consumer market. Copper prices will lose a strong bullish factor, although the property market may not enter the quick-frozen state is only a steady decline, but at least as the same as the 2016 year increase is not good.
2, the first half of the appliance industry performance to the future is still optimistic
The first half of 2017, the appliance industry is quite good, although individual products (mainly black) poor performance, but did not affect the overall performance of the industry. With the 2017 global economy was moderate and repaired growth, market performance is expected to improve, is expected in 2017 the global home appliance and consumer electronics market will grow 4.1% to $ 1,095.1 billion. Household electrical appliance enterprises continue to force the supply side of the structural reform, strengthen technological innovation and product structure adjustment, clinging to consumer and product structure upgrade opportunities, in the face of rising raw material costs and real estate regulation and control pressure, home appliance industry, the main operating indicators have achieved steady growth. Is expected in the second half of the first few months, the performance of the appliance sector will be very good. We can come to this conclusion, thanks to last year until the first half of the real estate situation and the overall improvement of the domestic economy, as well as seasonal factors play a role in the first half of the appliance performance in order to be able to play a better.
Fourth, the futures market analysis and forecast
Copper prices this week, finished lower trend, Shanghai copper main line up to 53,700 yuan on Tuesday, the main funds have differences, the early floating surplus huge funds began to withdraw, profit-taking, focused on Friday staged a substantial diving. Capital formation trampling effect. Shanghai copper main fell below 10 consecutive days, 20-day moving average support, 51 million is also precarious. Due to the reasons for the appreciation of the renminbi, copper fell less than copper in Shanghai, but also fell below the 6800 integer, still looking down support.
In fact, we see from the history of copper, this wave trend to 53900 near is an important long and short watershed, breaking the line pressure will expand the space, but the technical indicators that the adjustment needs in the increase, concerned about this wave adjustment Amplitude.
Foreign aspects: North Korea's nuclear test on the weekend caused a global concern and shock, Japan and South Korea's anxiety With the increasing nuclear test, China is also calling for a peaceful way to solve the problem. Geopolitical tension began to heat up, to gold as the representative of the safe-haven assets rose sharply.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released the latest Beige Book, said July to mid-August, the US economy to "moderate to moderate" pace expansion, but signs of inflation is still not obvious. "Prices rose across the country," the Federal Reserve to use regular visits to the national business information collected after feedback to. The Fed has raised interest rates twice this year, but the outlook for the third rate hike in the year is becoming increasingly uncertain because inflationary pressures remain sluggish despite continued growth in the US economy and lower unemployment rates. This also brings greater uncertainty to the dollar index. While the recent dollar index continued to fall sharply trend, has been to 91 near the point, this round of decline and the DPRK nuclear test and the United States recently announced July factory orders rate fell sharply not unrelated. From the graphical point of view the dollar index continues to weaken and fall space, support in the 90 line. While the dollar index fell on the support of copper will be gradually reflected.
Look at the domestic side: China's official manufacturing industry in August PMI 51.7, more than expected, for 13 consecutive months in the top of the line. The subsequent announcement of the new PMI was 53.4, approaching the highest level in the year, and the mutual verification of the two data also showed that the trend of steady recovery in China's economy will continue. For the traditional consumption of off-season copper is coming, the growth of potential consumption gives investors more imagination.
On the whole, the profit side of the profit is an important reason for the callback, not only copper varieties, other non-ferrous metals are significantly retracement. But need to point out that the call after a continuous rise is the technical needs of the short term still need to shock consolidation. In the long run, fundamentals change little, macro data favorable, copper prices are still upside space. Material under the Zhou Lun copper 6700-6950, Shanghai copper 5.1-5.3 million, scrap copper 452-46 million.
